Faculty Research: Assistant Professor Paul Nesbit Maps the Future of Farmland

Led by Assistant Professor Paul Nesbit, USF researchers at the Geospatial Analysis Lab are hard at work answering a seemingly simple question: who owns California’s farmland?

The answer, it turns out, is far from simple.  As a part of the California Land Observatory (CALO) project, in collaboration with researchers from UC Berkeley and the Community Alliance with Family Farmers (CAFF), the team worked to identify the largest owners of agricultural land in California, unveiling a troubling reality.  To quote a recent San Francisco Chronicle article detailing their findings, “Farmland is being snapped up by investment firms, corporate agribusiness and opaque holding companies, leaving farmers who could deliver a truly sustainable and resilient food system competing with Wall Street.”

Professor Nesbit and his team are building an interactive mapping dashboard that can help unveil and describe ongoing trends based on the most recent data, including public vs private ownership, out-of-state ownership, regionality and high-value crop cultivation.  Ultimately, this data will support policy advocacy around land ownership and sustainable farming practices, as well as address the greater issue of agricultural land consolidation.

We sat down with Professor Nesbit to find out more about his role in the project, set to be released in the coming months.

What is the importance of mapping the future of farmland?  What got you interested in the subject?

Agricultural land ownership is shifting rapidly due to climate pressures, political forces, and stress on local communities.  For example, in California, the top 10% of landowners now control over 73% of farmland in agricultural hubs like Fresno and Kings County. Much of this land is held by large investment conglomerates and corporate farms, but is still often leased to family farmers who manage and work it day to day.  Our goal is to utilize county assessor data to identify patterns in agricultural land ownership. One of the significant challenges of this task is that owners mask the extent of their ownership by filing taxes under multiple LLCs and names. 

Unveiling this information is important because who owns the land plays an essential role in the decisions made about that land — what crops are grown, how water is used and how much — all making long-term impacts on food security, sustainability and affordable access to the food system.

I became interested in this topic because it sits at the intersection of data, land use and management changes, and policy, all with real-world impacts. This project’s interdisciplinary nature makes  a spatial approach essential for understanding how these factors interact. This was very much a team effort with the Geospatial Analysis Lab, collaborating with David Saah, and Fernanda Lopez Ornelas as we mentored our Research Intern, Rebecca To (MSEM ‘26).

How has GIS data played a role in your understanding of the situation in California?

GIS has been essential in making sense of the agricultural landscape in California. Despite large owners masking holdings, we were able to map county assessor data to reveal parcel ownership at both county and statewide scales. GIS allows us to visualize these otherwise hidden patterns in this complex (and massive) dataset and identify areas of significant consolidation. We are also excited to openly share this information with the broader community through WebGIS enabled interactive maps and dashboards.

How are students involved in the work? 

Our Research Intern for this project, Rebecca To (MSEM ‘26) really drove our data analysis, management, and visualization.  Internships like this provide an excellent opportunity for students from the GsAL at USF to apply skills learned in the GIS classroom to a practical, real-world setting and to also engage with policy advocates.  

Here are some thoughts Rebecca shared with us about the internship: “I’ve been able to draw on my knowledge from courses I’ve taken at USF such as Python for GIS and Applied GIS to clean, analyze, and visualize this data.”  

What makes the Master of Science in Environmental Management (MSEM) program special?

The MSEM program offers opportunities for students to develop skills desired in professional roles.  Classes focus on real-world, timely issues and applied problem solving; many are taught by industry professionals. The 8-week format allows students to gain exposure to a wide breadth of topics in the field and to customize their program to their interests and career goals. We also offer a GIS certificate that is complementary to the MSEM degree and allows students to develop technical skills within the context of environmental management and problem solving. 

Who would you recommend the GIS certificate to? 

Anyone looking to extend their career prospects or learn new skills that support growth across professional roles and sectors . The certificate is complementary to most degree programs, including environmental management, environmental science, urban studies, international studies and public health, among others.   Our certificate is unique as it allows students to drive their program and select electives suited to their interests/fields; aside from taking Intro to GIS and Applied GIS (required courses), students earning the certificate can customize the remaining 60% of their certificate through electives, such as GIS for Wildfire Management, Google Earth Engine, GIS for Forest Carbon, GIS for Water, LiDAR, and more!